添加链接
link管理
链接快照平台
  • 输入网页链接,自动生成快照
  • 标签化管理网页链接
建模与仿真

Abstract: Security factors influencing China's offshore energy channel are analyzed, and the actual situation of China's oil import and transportation is described. Based on multi-agent modeling and simulation method, and starting at the micro level, the energy transport process is simulated and a multi-agent model of China's offshore energy channel (middle east lines) is built; and the simulation program on the NetLogo platform is conducted. The results show that the quantity of China’s VLCC is far from enough; the security impact of tropical cyclones is more serious than that of pirates; the increase proportion of carrier’s quantity is usually lower than that of the total oil transportation, while the larger the increase proportion of pirates and tropical cyclones, the faster the change proportion of total oil transportation.

Key words: energy channel, multi-agent, NetLogo, modeling and simulation [1] Yao L, Chang Y.Shaping China's energy security: The impact of domestic reforms[J]. Energy Policy, 2015, 77(2): 131-139.
[2] IEA.World Energy Outlook 2011[R]. 2011.
[3] Zhang H, Pan C.The Analysis of Status and Volume of Crude Oil Shipping Import in China[C]. Multimedia Technology (ICMT), 2010 International Conference on. IEEE, 2010: 1-3.
[4] 彭丽. 我国进口石油海上运输安全的灰色模糊综合评价[D]. 青岛: 中国海洋大学, 2009: 12-17.
Peng Li.The Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of China’s Importing Petroleum Marine Transportation Safety[D]. Qingdao: Ocean University of China, 2009: 12-17.
[5] 张罕育. 我国进口原油海上运输安全系统评价及预警研究[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2013: 36-44.
Zhang Hanyu.Study on the Evaluation and Early Warning of China's Seaborne Crude Oil Imports Security System[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2013: 36-44.
[6] 明平军. 基于可拓学的新加坡海峡航行环境安全评估[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2013: 42-55.
Ming Pingjun.Extenics-based Safety Assessment of Navigation Enviroment in Singapore Straits[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2013: 42-55.
[7] 何剑彤, 李振福, 李娜, 等. 我国海上战略通道安全影响因素的ISM分析[J]. 上海海事大学学报, 2012, 33(4): 64-69.
He Jiantong, Li Zhenfu, Li Na, et al.Analysis on influencing factors for China’s strategic sea lane security based on ISM[J]. Journal of Shanghai Maritime University, 2012, 33(4): 64-69.
[8] 巫蓓. 我国南海海域的海运安全评价[D]. 大连: 大连海事大学, 2013: 22-24.
Wu Bei.Assessment of Shipping Traffic Safety of the South China Sea[D]. Dalian: Dalian Maritime University, 2013: 22-24.
[9] 杨理智, 张韧, 白承祖, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的我国海上能源通道海盗袭击风险分析与实验评估[J]. 指挥控制与仿真, 2014, 36(2): 51-57.
Yang Lizhi, Zhang Ren, Bai Chengzu, et al.The Risk Analysis and Evaluation about Pirate Attacks on Marine Energy Channel of China Based on Bayes Net[J]. Command Control and Simulation, 2014, 36(2): 51-57.
[10] 杨理智, 张韧. 基于云模型的我国海上能源战略通道安全风险评估[J]. 军事运筹与系统工程, 2014, 28(1): 74-80.
Yang Lizhi, Zhang Ren.Security risk assessment of China's offshore energy strategic channel based on cloud model[J]. Military Operations Research and Systems Engineering, 2014, 28(1): 74-80.
[11] 王尧, 吕靖. 中国原油进口运输通道安全研究[J]. 大连海事大学学报, 2014, 40(1): 109-116.
Wang Yao, Lü Jing.Transportation safety of China crude oil import[J]. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 2014, 40(1): 109-116.
[12] 范英, 姬强, 朱磊, 等. 中国能源安全研究——基于管理科学的视角[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2013: 112-140.
Fan Ying, Ji Qiang, Zhu Lei, et al.Research on energy security in China -- from the perspective of management science [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2013: 112-140.
[13] 中石油经济技术研究院. 2014年国内外油气行业发展报告[R]. 2015: 1.
Institute of Petroleum Economics and technology. Domestic and foreign oil and gas industry development report 2014[R]. 2015: 1.
[14] 张韧, 洪梅, 黎鑫, 等, 南海-印度洋海洋环境风险评估与应急响应[M]. 北京: 国防工业出版社, 2014.
Zhang Ren, Hong Mei, Li Xin, et al.Marine environmental risk assessment and emergency response in the South China Sea and India sea[M]. Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 2014.
[15] 张军. 多主体系统——概念、方法与探索[M]. 北京: 首都经济贸易大学出版社, 2013.
Zhang Jun.Multi Agent System——Concepts、Methods and Exploration[M]. Beijing: The capital economics and trade university press, 2013.
[16] 沈洋. 多主体系统仿真调度与贝叶斯网络决策建模问题研究[D]. 南京: 南京航空航天大学, 2012.
Shen Yang.Research on the Modeling and Simulation of Multi-Agent System with Complex Event Scheduling Logic and Bayesian Network Decision-Making[D]. Nanjing: Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012. 赵柱, 王毅, 樊芮锋, 李丽亚, 祁蒙. 基于多主体NetLogo平台的反无人机OODA体系对抗建模 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(8): 1791-1800. 李文翔, 李晔, 董洁霜, 李一鸣. 引入碳交易机制的新能源汽车发展路径研究 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(6): 1451-1465. 王凌, 吴楚格, 范文慧. 边缘计算资源分配与任务调度优化综述 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(3): 509-520. 李锋, 魏莹. 复杂网络对羊群效应现象影响的仿真研究 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(3): 539-553. 郑文, 窦晨希, 张喆. 外卖平台专送式利益分配仿真 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(3): 631-644. 张琪, 曾俊杰, 许凯, 秦龙, 尹全军. 基于机器学习的计算机生成兵力行为建模研究综述 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2021, 33(2): 280-287. 周玉臣, 林圣琳, 马萍, 李伟, 杨明. 武器装备效能评估研究进展 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(8): 1413-1424. 聂兴信, 白存瑞. 露天矿山奖惩策略有效性的仿真研究 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(5): 946-955. 于道林, 朱文海, 庆骁, 施国强. 军工制造业数字化转型的系统方法论 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(3): 347-352. 王剑, 司徒陈麒, 袁胜强. 基于多主体和前景理论的应急风险决策仿真研究 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(3): 353-361. 李锋, 魏莹. 时序网络视角下网络舆情的演化模型研究 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(3): 394-403. 梁彩云, 李宏新, 隋岩峰, 栾旭, 石峰. 航空发动机虚拟采办的构建和发展设想 [J]. 系统仿真学报, 2020, 32(12): 2485-2493. 地址:北京142信箱13分箱 邮编:100854
联系电话:010-88527147 E-mail:[email protected]
技术支持:北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司