OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼。图片来源:DAVID PAUL MORRIS—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES
人工智能预示着“第四次工业革命”的开始,还是另外一次互联网泡沫?两者皆有可能。
OpenAI的生成式人工智能聊天机器人ChatGPT在2022年11月发布后不到两个月就吸引了超过1亿用户,这项新技术引起了投资界和实体领域的关注。微软(Microsoft)在对OpenAI的首笔投资中,大手笔追加投资100亿美元,事实证明这最终对谷歌(Google)在搜索领域的主导地位构成了挑战。谷歌的母公司Alphabet的应对措施是发布了自己的生成式人工智能聊天机器人Bard,日益激烈的人工智能竞赛令市场欣喜若狂,因此在Bard发布过程中的一个小错误,引发了股价暴跌,使Alphabet的市值在一天内缩水了1,000亿美元。
Bard和ChatGPT等生成式人工智能系统基于“大语言模型”,容易出现错误和偏离预定脚本,这是该类系统存在的一个关键问题。这些“幻觉”以及人工智能抢走人类就业或者被坏人利用来传播虚假信息的可能性,使埃隆·马斯克等亿万富翁警告,人工智能可能造成文明“毁灭”。然而,特斯拉(Tesla)的首席执行官马斯克也认为,人工智能技术能够提高工作效率,带来“富足的时代”。美国参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默也表示,人工智能的兴起显然是一个“革命性的时刻”,将“改变地球上的生命”。但这位纽约州参议员承认,美国国会需要对该技术采取更多的监管措施,而且其未来充满了不确定性。
当然,有大批资金面临风险。以半导体业巨头英伟达(Nvidia)为例。今年,英伟达的股价上涨超过190%,使其成为万亿美元俱乐部的最新成员。对预测人工智能“淘金热”的分析师而言,英伟达的芯片是现代的“基本工具”。
虽然恶性通胀和利率上涨通常会影响成长型科技股,但在2023年,英伟达等与人工智能关联的股票暴涨,使标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)今年上涨超过16%。微软的股价从年初至今也上涨了超过40%,而跟踪人工智能关联股票的全球X机器人与人工智能交易所交易基金(Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF)同样上涨了40%以上。
贝勒大学(Baylor University)的电子与计算机工程学教授罗伯特·马克斯对当前的人工智能热持怀疑态度。他对《财富》杂志表示:“目前我们正处在一个炒作周期当中,也就是泡沫。我认为人们应该放慢速度,保持更清醒的头脑。”
投资研究公司New Constructs的创始人大卫·特雷纳称,人工智能狂热令他想起了新冠疫情期间加密货币和网红股如流星般的迅速崛起,甚至本世纪初的互联网泡沫时代。互联网泡沫破灭让投资者损失高达约5万亿美元,在本世纪初引发了短暂的经济衰退。
这位资深投资者警告,试图从人工智能时代获利的投资者,特别是如果他们不关注估值和收益,他们最终可能就会失望。
他使用了“错失焦虑症”的缩写告诉《财富》杂志:“我认为,我们正在见证一轮又一轮的狂热。这是一种‘错失焦虑症’,越来越多的股票正在达到荒谬的高度……投资者们必须小心谨慎。”
典型的炒作周期
无论你是否相信,人工智能热并不新鲜。1958年,《纽约时报》(New York Times)发表了一篇名为《从实践中学习的新海军设备;心理学家展示可以阅读并且提高智能的计算机原型》(New Navy Device Learns By Doing; Psychologist Shows Embryo of Computer Designed to Read and Grow Wiser)的文章,介绍了弗兰克·罗森布拉特的“感知机”(Perceptron)机器人。美国海军称,这款机器人将很快“能走路、能说话、能看、能写、能自我复制,并且能意识到自身的存在。”
康奈尔大学(Cornell University)的研究员和教授罗森布拉特当时所从事的确实是具有开拓性的研究。他因为开发出当前生成式人工智能使用的基本理论而被一些人誉为“深度学习之父”。感知机被媒体大肆吹捧,例如《纽约客》(The New Yorker)将其称为“人类大脑第一个真正的对手”,尽管如此,这款“机器人”实际上只是朝着开发有用的人工智能技术迈出的第一步,它只是在一台5吨重的IBM计算机上运行的基础计算机程序。
马克斯在提到感知机时,对《财富》杂志表示:“有关人工智能的炒作一直存在。”这位教授指出,投资者和消费者之所以能够被这种趋势所吸引,部分原因是人工智能复制人类的能力。他说:“关于人工智能的炒作,有许多心理层面的因素。”
马克斯表示,ChatGPT和Bard等系统使用了“有魅力的光学元件”,并且具有令人毛骨悚然的模仿能力,因此表现得比实际水平更加智能。马克斯还担任沃尔特·布拉德利自然和人工智能中心(Walter Bradley Center for Natural & Artificial Intelligence)的主任,并出版过数本有关人工智能的著作。
他认为,关于人工智能在心理方面的因素,将围绕这项技术展开的炒作推高到新的难以持续的程度,也是自工业革命以来每次新技术进步之后常见的炒作周期的又一个例子。
他解释称:“炒作周期始终存在。有上升期,然后有炒作的高峰期。之后人们开始承认新技术的局限性,于是开始意识到这些局限性意味着存在过度炒作。还有一种严重的犬儒主义潮流,最终形成了一条现实的渐近线。”
随着人工智能炒作周期达到最高潮,投资者们是否正在进行过度投资?
投资者很难避免被卷入人工智能炒作。华尔街所有人都在谈论这种趋势,例如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)称赞该技术有潜力“带来更高生产率的新时代”,贝莱德(BlackRock)的首席执行官拉里·芬克称,该项技术将提高利润率,帮助应对通货膨胀。
WedBush的科技分析师丹·艾夫斯将生成式人工智能技术的发展形容为“第四次工业革命的开始”,他认为尽管年初至今纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)已经上涨了约30%,但今年该项技术将带动科技股上涨至新的高度。
艾夫斯以乐观预测科技股而著称。他认为,人工智能已经带来了自20世纪90年代末互联网时代以来前所未见的科技股繁荣。他还表示是“1995年……而不是1999年”,这意味着投资者的盛宴才刚刚开始。毕竟从1995年至2000年3月科技泡沫破灭时,投资者试图抓住互联网时代到来的契机,纳斯达克综合指数暴涨了400%。
New Constructs的大卫·特雷纳承认,这种新“狂热”持续的时间难以预测。他说:“我们已经看到有些股票出现不合理的涨幅,凡是头脑清醒的人都不会从基本面的角度论证这些上涨的合理性。”
特雷纳此前曾经讨论过英伟达的上涨,他在6月末告诉《财富》杂志,英伟达股票的“定价是基于幻想”。该半导体巨头的远期市盈率倍数为55倍,约为科技行业市盈率的两倍。但特雷纳担心华尔街不再关心“基本面”,即现金流和利润等决定公司长期成功的基本因素。
他解释称:“机构[分析师]当中有一种流派认为基本面并不重要,这种流派很有市场。他们会说:‘如果过多考虑基本面,你就会错过投资机会。’”
特雷纳警告,在当前的这种情况下,投资者正在经历“错失焦虑症”,并听从华尔街无视基本面的乐观的声音,不理性行为持续的时间可能超出预期。他说:“当这种行为变得像当前这么普遍的时候,我不知道什么时候基本面才会变得至关重要。”
这位资深分析师在互联网时期入职瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse),开始了自己的职业生涯。他根据自己对投资狂热的个人经历,提出了警告。他表示:“如果你想像那些有‘措施焦虑症’的人们一样加入投资热潮,希望可以获得回报,你就必须了解自己可能要承担的风险。在某个时刻,市场行情可能逆转,你需要确保当这个时刻来临时,你不会卷入其中。”
以人工智能的长期潜力平衡当前的炒作
虽然有人认为最近人工智能被过度炒作,但专家们也有一种普遍共识,那就是人工智能是一项颠覆性的技术。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)在6月发布的一份报告称,通过评估从营销和销售业务到软件工程等领域的63个生成式人工智能使用案例发现,该项技术每年可能为全球额外创造2.6万亿美元至4.4万亿美元的价值。
还有证据证明,消费者和商界每天正在增多对人工智能的应用。比如,美国职业棒球大联盟(Major League Baseball)正在与生物力学公司Uplift Labs合作,利用人工智能技术进行球员探查,美国国家航空航天局(NASA)正在开发生成式人工智能系统,将支持宇航员在“月球门户”(Lunar Gateway)空间站“与航天器进行对话式互动”。“月球门户”作为“阿尔忒弥斯”项目(Artemis Program)的一部分,定于2028年发射,将环绕月球轨道航行。美国银行(Bank of America)最近的调查发现,59%的美国网民已经在使用ChatGPT,有40%的网民每周会多次使用生成式人工智能聊天机器人。
就连马克斯也表示,虽然应该立即对人工智能进行监管,以避免发生该项技术被坏人利用的噩梦情景,但它也可能给人类带来帮助。马克斯曾经出版了《杀人机器人用例》(The Case for Killer Robots)一书。
他说:“人工智能将被融入到人类社会,它并不会像许多人所说的那样带来一个反乌托邦的未来。它肯定会带来破坏。新技术总是具有破坏性,但我认为它最终将让我们的生活变得更轻松。”
虽然投资者们对许多人工智能关联股票过于乐观,但New Constructs的特雷纳也认同该项技术的长期前景。他表示,他已经在使用人工智能帮助解读财务报表附注,并且他预测未来该项技术将变得用途更加广泛。他说:“这是一项实用的技术。但它是否被过度炒作?没错,就像互联网被炒作一样。”
特雷纳认为,人工智能最终将成为日常生活中的公用事业,但这并不意味着每一只人工智能股票都值得买入,尤其是目前这些股票的估值并不合理。他指出,在互联网泡沫时期,虽然纳斯达克综合指数从1995年至2000年上涨了400%,但从2000年3月至2002年10月泡沫破灭,该指数下跌了近77%,许多曾经互联网时代暴涨的股票变得一文不值。
这位分析师表示,他担心这一次可能出现类似的模式,但没有人能够预测具体时间。“这就是这类炒作的发展过程。首先它被誉为有史以来最伟大的事物,但我们终归生活在一个充满竞争的世界。不可能人人都可以获得胜利。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
人工智能预示着“第四次工业革命”的开始,还是另外一次互联网泡沫?两者皆有可能。
OpenAI的生成式人工智能聊天机器人ChatGPT在2022年11月发布后不到两个月就吸引了超过1亿用户,这项新技术引起了投资界和实体领域的关注。微软(Microsoft)在对OpenAI的首笔投资中,大手笔追加投资100亿美元,事实证明这最终对谷歌(Google)在搜索领域的主导地位构成了挑战。谷歌的母公司Alphabet的应对措施是发布了自己的生成式人工智能聊天机器人Bard,日益激烈的人工智能竞赛令市场欣喜若狂,因此在Bard发布过程中的一个小错误,引发了股价暴跌,使Alphabet的市值在一天内缩水了1,000亿美元。
Bard和ChatGPT等生成式人工智能系统基于“大语言模型”,容易出现错误和偏离预定脚本,这是该类系统存在的一个关键问题。这些“幻觉”以及人工智能抢走人类就业或者被坏人利用来传播虚假信息的可能性,使埃隆·马斯克等亿万富翁警告,人工智能可能造成文明“毁灭”。然而,特斯拉(Tesla)的首席执行官马斯克也认为,人工智能技术能够提高工作效率,带来“富足的时代”。美国参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默也表示,人工智能的兴起显然是一个“革命性的时刻”,将“改变地球上的生命”。但这位纽约州参议员承认,美国国会需要对该技术采取更多的监管措施,而且其未来充满了不确定性。
当然,有大批资金面临风险。以半导体业巨头英伟达(Nvidia)为例。今年,英伟达的股价上涨超过190%,使其成为万亿美元俱乐部的最新成员。对预测人工智能“淘金热”的分析师而言,英伟达的芯片是现代的“基本工具”。
虽然恶性通胀和利率上涨通常会影响成长型科技股,但在2023年,英伟达等与人工智能关联的股票暴涨,使标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)今年上涨超过16%。微软的股价从年初至今也上涨了超过40%,而跟踪人工智能关联股票的全球X机器人与人工智能交易所交易基金(Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF)同样上涨了40%以上。
贝勒大学(Baylor University)的电子与计算机工程学教授罗伯特·马克斯对当前的人工智能热持怀疑态度。他对《财富》杂志表示:“目前我们正处在一个炒作周期当中,也就是泡沫。我认为人们应该放慢速度,保持更清醒的头脑。”
投资研究公司New Constructs的创始人大卫·特雷纳称,人工智能狂热令他想起了新冠疫情期间加密货币和网红股如流星般的迅速崛起,甚至本世纪初的互联网泡沫时代。互联网泡沫破灭让投资者损失高达约5万亿美元,在本世纪初引发了短暂的经济衰退。
这位资深投资者警告,试图从人工智能时代获利的投资者,特别是如果他们不关注估值和收益,他们最终可能就会失望。
他使用了“错失焦虑症”的缩写告诉《财富》杂志:“我认为,我们正在见证一轮又一轮的狂热。这是一种‘错失焦虑症’,越来越多的股票正在达到荒谬的高度……投资者们必须小心谨慎。”
典型的炒作周期
无论你是否相信,人工智能热并不新鲜。1958年,《纽约时报》(New York Times)发表了一篇名为《从实践中学习的新海军设备;心理学家展示可以阅读并且提高智能的计算机原型》(New Navy Device Learns By Doing; Psychologist Shows Embryo of Computer Designed to Read and Grow Wiser)的文章,介绍了弗兰克·罗森布拉特的“感知机”(Perceptron)机器人。美国海军称,这款机器人将很快“能走路、能说话、能看、能写、能自我复制,并且能意识到自身的存在。”
康奈尔大学(Cornell University)的研究员和教授罗森布拉特当时所从事的确实是具有开拓性的研究。他因为开发出当前生成式人工智能使用的基本理论而被一些人誉为“深度学习之父”。感知机被媒体大肆吹捧,例如《纽约客》(The New Yorker)将其称为“人类大脑第一个真正的对手”,尽管如此,这款“机器人”实际上只是朝着开发有用的人工智能技术迈出的第一步,它只是在一台5吨重的IBM计算机上运行的基础计算机程序。
马克斯在提到感知机时,对《财富》杂志表示:“有关人工智能的炒作一直存在。”这位教授指出,投资者和消费者之所以能够被这种趋势所吸引,部分原因是人工智能复制人类的能力。他说:“关于人工智能的炒作,有许多心理层面的因素。”
马克斯表示,ChatGPT和Bard等系统使用了“有魅力的光学元件”,并且具有令人毛骨悚然的模仿能力,因此表现得比实际水平更加智能。马克斯还担任沃尔特·布拉德利自然和人工智能中心(Walter Bradley Center for Natural & Artificial Intelligence)的主任,并出版过数本有关人工智能的著作。
他认为,关于人工智能在心理方面的因素,将围绕这项技术展开的炒作推高到新的难以持续的程度,也是自工业革命以来每次新技术进步之后常见的炒作周期的又一个例子。
他解释称:“炒作周期始终存在。有上升期,然后有炒作的高峰期。之后人们开始承认新技术的局限性,于是开始意识到这些局限性意味着存在过度炒作。还有一种严重的犬儒主义潮流,最终形成了一条现实的渐近线。”
随着人工智能炒作周期达到最高潮,投资者们是否正在进行过度投资?
投资者很难避免被卷入人工智能炒作。华尔街所有人都在谈论这种趋势,例如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)称赞该技术有潜力“带来更高生产率的新时代”,贝莱德(BlackRock)的首席执行官拉里·芬克称,该项技术将提高利润率,帮助应对通货膨胀。
WedBush的科技分析师丹·艾夫斯将生成式人工智能技术的发展形容为“第四次工业革命的开始”,他认为尽管年初至今纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite)已经上涨了约30%,但今年该项技术将带动科技股上涨至新的高度。
艾夫斯以乐观预测科技股而著称。他认为,人工智能已经带来了自20世纪90年代末互联网时代以来前所未见的科技股繁荣。他还表示是“1995年……而不是1999年”,这意味着投资者的盛宴才刚刚开始。毕竟从1995年至2000年3月科技泡沫破灭时,投资者试图抓住互联网时代到来的契机,纳斯达克综合指数暴涨了400%。
New Constructs的大卫·特雷纳承认,这种新“狂热”持续的时间难以预测。他说:“我们已经看到有些股票出现不合理的涨幅,凡是头脑清醒的人都不会从基本面的角度论证这些上涨的合理性。”
特雷纳此前曾经讨论过英伟达的上涨,他在6月末告诉《财富》杂志,英伟达股票的“定价是基于幻想”。该半导体巨头的远期市盈率倍数为55倍,约为科技行业市盈率的两倍。但特雷纳担心华尔街不再关心“基本面”,即现金流和利润等决定公司长期成功的基本因素。
他解释称:“机构[分析师]当中有一种流派认为基本面并不重要,这种流派很有市场。他们会说:‘如果过多考虑基本面,你就会错过投资机会。’”
特雷纳警告,在当前的这种情况下,投资者正在经历“错失焦虑症”,并听从华尔街无视基本面的乐观的声音,不理性行为持续的时间可能超出预期。他说:“当这种行为变得像当前这么普遍的时候,我不知道什么时候基本面才会变得至关重要。”
这位资深分析师在互联网时期入职瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse),开始了自己的职业生涯。他根据自己对投资狂热的个人经历,提出了警告。他表示:“如果你想像那些有‘措施焦虑症’的人们一样加入投资热潮,希望可以获得回报,你就必须了解自己可能要承担的风险。在某个时刻,市场行情可能逆转,你需要确保当这个时刻来临时,你不会卷入其中。”
以人工智能的长期潜力平衡当前的炒作
虽然有人认为最近人工智能被过度炒作,但专家们也有一种普遍共识,那就是人工智能是一项颠覆性的技术。咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)在6月发布的一份报告称,通过评估从营销和销售业务到软件工程等领域的63个生成式人工智能使用案例发现,该项技术每年可能为全球额外创造2.6万亿美元至4.4万亿美元的价值。
还有证据证明,消费者和商界每天正在增多对人工智能的应用。比如,美国职业棒球大联盟(Major League Baseball)正在与生物力学公司Uplift Labs合作,利用人工智能技术进行球员探查,美国国家航空航天局(NASA)正在开发生成式人工智能系统,将支持宇航员在“月球门户”(Lunar Gateway)空间站“与航天器进行对话式互动”。“月球门户”作为“阿尔忒弥斯”项目(Artemis Program)的一部分,定于2028年发射,将环绕月球轨道航行。美国银行(Bank of America)最近的调查发现,59%的美国网民已经在使用ChatGPT,有40%的网民每周会多次使用生成式人工智能聊天机器人。
就连马克斯也表示,虽然应该立即对人工智能进行监管,以避免发生该项技术被坏人利用的噩梦情景,但它也可能给人类带来帮助。马克斯曾经出版了《杀人机器人用例》(The Case for Killer Robots)一书。
他说:“人工智能将被融入到人类社会,它并不会像许多人所说的那样带来一个反乌托邦的未来。它肯定会带来破坏。新技术总是具有破坏性,但我认为它最终将让我们的生活变得更轻松。”
虽然投资者们对许多人工智能关联股票过于乐观,但New Constructs的特雷纳也认同该项技术的长期前景。他表示,他已经在使用人工智能帮助解读财务报表附注,并且他预测未来该项技术将变得用途更加广泛。他说:“这是一项实用的技术。但它是否被过度炒作?没错,就像互联网被炒作一样。”
特雷纳认为,人工智能最终将成为日常生活中的公用事业,但这并不意味着每一只人工智能股票都值得买入,尤其是目前这些股票的估值并不合理。他指出,在互联网泡沫时期,虽然纳斯达克综合指数从1995年至2000年上涨了400%,但从2000年3月至2002年10月泡沫破灭,该指数下跌了近77%,许多曾经互联网时代暴涨的股票变得一文不值。
这位分析师表示,他担心这一次可能出现类似的模式,但没有人能够预测具体时间。“这就是这类炒作的发展过程。首先它被誉为有史以来最伟大的事物,但我们终归生活在一个充满竞争的世界。不可能人人都可以获得胜利。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Is A.I. the start of the “4th industrial revolution” or another dot-com bubble? It could be both.
When OpenAI’s generative A.I. chatbot, ChatGPT, pulled in over 100 million users in under two months after its release in November, the eyes of both Wall Street and Main Street locked onto the new technology. Microsoft darted in to tack on another $10 billion to its initial investment in OpenAI in a move that suggested, finally, a challenge to Google’s search dominance. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, responded by releasing its own generative A.I. chatbot, Bard, and the market was so rapt by the evolving A.I. race that a minor mistake during its rollout sparked a selloff that took $100 billion off Alphabet’s market cap in a single day.
The tendency of generative A.I. systems based on “large language models” like Bard and ChatGPT to make mistakes and go off script is a key issue here. These “hallucinations,” along with the potential for A.I. as a whole to steal jobs or empower bad actors to spread misinformation, have billionaires such as Elon Musk warning that A.I. could cause the “destruction” of civilization. And yet, the Tesla CEO has also argued that the technology could boost worker productivity, leading to an “age of abundance.” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has also said the rise of A.I. clearly amounts to a “moment of revolution” that will “transform life on Earth.” But the New York senator admits that Congress needs to do more to regulate the technology and its future is far from certain.
And, of course, there’s a lot of money at stake. Look no further than Nvidia, whose shares are up more than 190% this year, making the semiconductor giant the newest member of the $1 trillion market cap club. For analysts predicting an A.I. “gold rush,” Nvidia’s chips represent the “picks and shovels” of the modern era.
Despite stubborn inflation and rising interest rates that typically weigh on growth focused tech stocks, A.I.-linked equities like Nvidia have surged in 2023, helping the S&P 500 jump more than 16% this year. Microsoft, for its part, has also surged more than 40% year-to-date, and the Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF, which tracks stocks linked to A.I., has managed a similar 40% plus rise.
Robert Marks, an electrical and computer engineering professor at Baylor University, is unconvinced by the enthusiasm. “We’re in a hype curve—a bubble,” he told Fortune. “And I think that people have to slow down and be a bit more sober in terms of their thinking.”
And David Trainer, founder of the investment research firm New Constructs, says the craze over A.I. reminds him of the meteoric rise of cryptocurrencies and meme stocks during the pandemic, or even the dot-com era of the early 2000s that wiped out some $5 trillion of investors’ cash when it finally blew, triggering a brief but recession at the start of the new century.
The veteran analyst warned that investors seeking to profit from the A.I. era may end up disappointed, especially if they don’t pay attention to valuations and earnings.
“I think that we’re seeing just one fad after another. It’s FOMO and more and more stocks are moving to ridiculous heights…investors just have to be really careful,” he told Fortune, using the acronym for fear of missing out.
The classic hype curve
Believe it or not, A.I. hype is nothing new. In 1958, The New York Times published an article titled “New Navy Device Learns By Doing; Psychologist Shows Embryo of Computer Designed to Read and Grow Wiser” that described Frank Rosenblatt’s “Perceptron” robot, which the Navy said would soon “walk, talk, see, write, reproduce itself and be conscious of its existence.”
Rosenblatt, a Cornell University researcher and professor, was certainly doing some pioneering work at the time—he’s even credited by some as the “father of deep learning” for developing some of the basic ingredients that are used in generative A.I. today. But despite the Perceptron being touted by the media—including The New Yorker, which labeled it the “first serious rival to the human brain”—the “robot” was really just a first step in the journey towards useful A.I. technology, a basic computer program run on a 5-ton IBM computer.
“We’ve always had this hype around A.I.,” Marks told Fortune, referencing the Perceptron. The professor said part of the reason investors and consumers are so caught up in the trend is generative A.I.’s ability to replicate humans. “There’s a lot of psychological aspects to the hype around artificial intelligence,” he noted.
Systems like ChatGPT and Bard’s use “seductive optics” and eerie mimicry to appear more intelligent than they really are, said Marks, who is also director of the Walter Bradley Center for Natural & Artificial Intelligence and has written multiple books on A.I.
This psychological aspect of A.I. has helped push the hype surrounding the technology to a new, unsustainable level, according to the professor, and represents another example of the classic hype curve seen after every new technological advancement since the industrial revolution.
“There’s always a hype curve,” he explained. “There’s a rise, then a peak of hype. Then there’s a recognition of the limitations of the new technology, and people begin to realize that because of these limitations, the hype is overdone. And then there’s a depth of cynicism, and that eventually generates an asymptote of reality.”
Are investors overreaching as the A.I. hype curve peaks?
For investors, it can be difficult to avoid getting sucked into the A.I. hype. Wall Street is all over the trend, with Morgan Stanley lauding its potential to “usher in a new era of productivity” and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink arguing the tech will boost margins and help fight inflation.
Wedbush tech analyst Dan Ives has labeled the rise of generative A.I. technology the “start of a 4th Industrial Revolution,” arguing it will help push tech stocks to new heights this year, even after the Nasdaq Composite’s roughly 30% year-to-date gain.
Ives, who is known for his bullish tech predictions, believes A.I. has kicked off a tech boom not seen since the dotcom era of the late ‘90s. And he argues it’s “1995…not 1999,” meaning the party for investors is just getting started. After all, between 1995 and March 2000, when the tech bubble burst, the Nasdaq Composite soared 400% as investors sought to take advantage of the start of the internet age.
New Constructs’ David Trainer admitted that it’s hard to tell how long this new “fad” is going to last. “We’ve already seen some of these stocks go up by absurd amounts, that no one in their right mind would really ever try to justify from a fundamental perspective,” he noted.
Trainer has previously discussed the rise of Nvidia, telling Fortune in late June that the stock was “priced for fantasy.” The semiconductor giant has a forward price to earnings ratio of 55x, roughly twice the level of the wider tech sector. But Trainer fears Wall Street is no longer worried about “fundamentals”—the underlying factors that lead to a business’ long-term success, such as cash flows and profits.
“There’s a very large school of thought in the institutional [analyst] business that fundamentals don’t matter,” he explained. “They’ll say, ‘If you think about fundamentals too much, you’re gonna miss out on opportunities.’”
Trainer warned that during periods like today when investors are experiencing “FOMO,” and listening to Wall Street’s bullish calls that disregard fundamentals, irrational behavior can continue for longer than expected. “When this all becomes as pervasive as it’s become, then it’s fair to say, I don’t know when fundamentals are gonna matter,” he said.
But the veteran analyst, who started his career at Credit Suisse during the dotcom era, did offer a warning based on his experience with investing fads. “If you want to be in the game where you’re trying to chase those returns and be part of the FOMO crowd, just understand the kind of risk you’re taking,” he said. “At some point, it’s going to reverse and you need to make sure you’re not around by the time that happens.”
Squaring the hype with A.I.’s long-term potential
While some argue that the recent A.I. hype is overdone, there is also a general consensus among experts that it’s a game-changing technology. And a June report from the consulting firm McKinsey found, by measuring 63 generative A.I. use cases, from marketing and sales operations to software engineering, that the technology could add $2.6 trillion to $4.4 trillion in value to the global economy annually.
There’s also evidence A.I. is being used by consumers and in the business world more every day. Major League Baseball, for example, is now working with biomechanics company Uplift Labs to implement A.I. tech for player scouting, and NASA is developing generative A.I. systems that will enable astronauts to “have conversational interactions with space vehicles” on the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will orbit the moon and is scheduled to launch in 2028 as part of the Artemis Program. A recent Bank of America survey even found that 59% of U.S. internet users already use ChatGPT, and some 40% are using generative A.I. chatbots multiple times per week.
Even Marks, who authored a book titled The Case for Killer Robots, said that although A.I. should be regulated immediately to avoid potential nightmare scenarios in which bad actors use the technology to harm the public, it also has potential to help humanity.
“A.I. is going to be incorporated into our society, it’s not going to be a dystopian future, like a lot of people say it’s going to,” he said. “It’s going to be disruptive. Of course, new technology is always disruptive, but I think it’s going to ultimately make our lives a lot easier.”
And while investors may be getting ahead of themselves when it comes to many A.I.-linked stocks, New Constructs’ Trainer also believes in the technology’s long-term prospects. He noted that he already uses A.I. to help read through financial footnotes and expects the technology to be increasingly useful over the years. “There’s real technology there,” he said. “But is it hyped up? Yeah, the same way the internet was hyped up.”
For Trainer, A.I. will ultimately become a utility in our daily lives, but that doesn’t mean every A.I. stock is worth buying, especially at the current, often unreasonable valuations. He noted that during the dotcom bubble, although the Nasdaq Composite rose 400% between 1995 and 2000, it ultimately fell nearly 77% between March 2000 and October of 2002 when the bubble burst and many of the once high-flying internet-era stocks went to zero.
The analyst said he fears we could see a similar pattern this time, but no one knows when. “That’s the way these things work. It starts out as the greatest thing since sliced bread, but ultimately, we live in a competitive world. Everybody can’t win.”
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