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Stay informed about our performance and financial stability. </p><hr/><div class="navbar__modal__container__links"><div><ul><li><div class="cta cta--link--arrow"><span class="cta__container"><span>Coface Share</span></span><ul><li><a href="/investors/coface-share/share-price-and-performance" class="p-XS">Share price and performance</a></li><li><a href="/investors/coface-share/share-capital-and-shareholding-structure" class="p-XS">Share Capital and Shareholding structure</a></li><li><a href="/investors/coface-share/ratings" class="p-XS">Ratings</a></li><li><a href="/investors/coface-share/analysts-consensus" class="p-XS">Analysts Consensus</a></li><li><a href="/investors/coface-share/dividend" class="p-XS">Dividend</a></li></ul></div></li><li><div class="cta cta--link--arrow"><span class="cta__container"><span>General Meeting</span></span><ul><li><a href="https://www.coface.com/investors/regulated-information/documents-relating-to-the-general-assembly" class="p-XS">Taking 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aria-current="page" itemprop="itemListElement" itemscope="" itemtype="https://schema.org/ListItem"><span itemprop="name">Tajikistan</span><meta itemprop="position" content="4"/></li></ul></nav></div><div class="countrySheetHeader__content__card"><div class="countrySheetHeader__content__card__left"><h1 class="countrySheetHeader__content__card__left__state"><img src="/build/default/images/flags/tj.png" alt="" class="countrySheetHeader__content__card__left__state__img"/><span class="countrySheetHeader__content__card__left__state__label style-h3">Tajikistan</span></h1><p>Asia</p><dl><dt>GDP per Capita ($)</dt><dd>$1,066.8</dd><dt>Population (in 2021)</dt><dd>9.8 million</dd></dl></div><div class="countrySheetHeader__content__card__right"><h2 class="p-M">Assessment</h2><dl class="rating"><dt>Country Risk</dt><dd class="color-D"><span id="rating-214464474-title"><span class="style-h3">D</span></span><span class="rating__info__container"><button class="rating__info" type="button" 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</dd></dl></div><button class="cta cta--blue cta--icon-right cta--w100" data-modal="modal-1481284953"><span class="cta__container"><svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" width="16" height="20" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M12.12 12.426v-6.79H5.334M12.12 5.64l-8.725 8.724" stroke-width="1.2"/></svg><span>See other main economic indicators</span></span></button></div></div></div></section><div id="modal-1481284953" class="modal " role="dialog" aria-label="Tajikistan"><div class="modal__document modal__document__economic" role="document"><button class="modal__close"><span class="style-h6 modal__close__label">Close</span><svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" class="icon icon-close" width="17" height="16" viewbox="0 0 17 16" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M1.16113 15.0869L15.3348 0.913204" stroke="black" stroke-width="1.5"/><path d="M15.4956 15.248L0.999767 0.752206" stroke="black" stroke-width="1.5"/></svg></button><div class="modal-economic"><div class="economic-modal"><div class="economic-modal__header"><h3>Main economic indicators</h3><p class="p-S">At a glance, see the major macroeconomic aggregates essential to understanding the economic environment in a country as well as forecasted changes.</p></div><div class="select economic-modal__select" id="select-253023967"><input type="hidden" name="select_name" id="economic-select" value=""/><button type="button" class="select__btn" id="economic-select-btn" aria-expanded="false" aria-haspopup="listbox" aria-labelledby="" aria-describedby=""><span class="select__btn__label"> Dates <svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" width="17" height="12" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M16 .744 6.376 10.37 1.263 5.256" stroke-width="2"/></svg></li></ul></div><table class="economic-modal__grid"><caption class="sr-only">Main economic indicators</caption><tr><th scope="col" class="top"/><th scope="col" class="top">2021</th><th scope="col" class="top">2022</th><th scope="col" class="top">2023</th><th scope="col" class="top">2024</th></tr><tr><th scope="row" data-col="0">GDP growth <span>(%)</span></th><td data-col="1" class="displayed"> 9.4 </td></tr><tr><th scope="row" data-col="0">Inflation <span>(yearly average,%)</span></th><td data-col="1" class="displayed"> 9 </td></tr><tr><th scope="row" data-col="0">Budget balance <span>(% GDP)</span></th><td data-col="1" class="displayed"> -0.7 </td></tr><tr><th scope="row" data-col="0">Current account balance <span>(% GDP)</span></th><td data-col="1" class="displayed"> 8.2 </td></tr><tr><th scope="row" data-col="0">Public debt / GDP <span>(% GDP)</span></th><td data-col="1" class="displayed"> 42.1 </td></tr></table><p class="economic-modal__desc p-XS">(e): Estimate (f): Forecast</p></div></div></div></div><div class="countrySheetTabs "><div class="navbar-ui__container default with-dropdown " id="navbar-321185824"><nav id="navbar-321185824-nav" class="navbar-ui default" role="navigation" aria-label="Page summary"><ul class="navbar-ui__list"><li class="navbar-ui__list__item"><a href="#export-import-graph497" class="navbar-ui__list__item__button" data-type="anchor" data-target="export-import-graph497" data-state="enabled" aria-disabled="false"><svg aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" width="21" height="19" viewbox="0 0 21 19" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M14.8604 17.1552L14.8604 1.78516" stroke="#1B365D" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-miterlimit="10"/><path d="M9.5302 6.74504L14.8702 1.41504L20.2002 6.74504" stroke="#1B365D" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-miterlimit="10"/><path d="M6.29004 1.49512L6.29004 17.4451" stroke="#1B365D" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-miterlimit="10"/><path d="M11.3896 12.4849L6.28965 17.5849L1.19965 12.4849" stroke="#1B365D" stroke-width="1.2" stroke-miterlimit="10"/></svg> Trade exchanges Outlook Compare countries Choose a topic </span><span class="help sr-only">Select page section</span></span></button></div><div class="dropdown__content" hidden=""><nav id="navbar-321185824-dropdown" class="navbar-ui--mobile default" role="navigation" aria-label="Page summary"><ul class="navbar-ui__list"><li class="navbar-ui__list__item"><a href="#export-import-graph497" class="navbar-ui__list__item__button" data-type="anchor" data-target="export-import-graph497"> Trade exchanges Outlook Compare countries Select a country Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia Austria Azerbaijan Bahamas, Commonwealth of the Bahrain Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belgium Belize Benin Bolivia Bosnia &amp; Herzegovina Botswana Brazil Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cabo Verde Central African Republic Chile China Colombia Congo (Republic of the) Congo (Democratic Republic of) Costa Rica Croatia Cyprus Czechia (Czech Republic) Côte d'Ivoire Denmark Djibouti Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia Fiji, Republic of the Fiji Islands Finland France Gabon Gambia, Republic of the Georgia Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Guyana Honduras Hong Kong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Jamaica Japan Jordan Kazakhstan Kenya South Korea Kuwait Kyrgyz Republic (Kyrgyzstan) Laos (Lao People's Democratic Republic) Latvia Lebanon Lesotho, Kingdom of Liberia Libya Lithuania Luxembourg Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Malta Mauritania Mauritius Mexico Moldova (Republic of) Mongolia Montenegro Morocco Mozambique Myanmar Namibia Nepal Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North Macedonia Norway Pakistan Panama Papua New Guinea Paraguay Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Romania Russia (Russian Federation) Rwanda Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia Sierra Leone Singapore Slovakia Slovenia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Suriname Eswatini Sweden Switzerland Taiwan (Republic of China) Tajikistan Tanzania (United Republic of) Thailand Timor-Leste (Democratic Republic of) Trinidad &amp; Tobago Tunisia Türkiye Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States of America Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) Vietnam (Socialist Republic of) Zambia Zimbabwe </option></select><label for="countrySheetTabs__select_id" id="type_to_filter-350274377"><span class="type_to_filter__filter__text">Search for a country/region</span></label><p aria-live="assertive" aria-atomic="true" class="sr-only type_to_filter__filter__nb-suggestion"><span/> suggestions </p></div><button class="countrySheetTabs__select__submit p-S" type="button" disabled="disabled"><span class="sr-only">Search for a country/region</span>OK</button></div></div><section class="prosAndCons" id="id_summary"><h2 class="prosAndCons__title style-h3">Summary</h2><div class="prosAndCons__cont"><article class="prosAndCons__pros"><h3 class="prosAndCons__pros__title style-h4">Strengths</h3><ul><li>Plentiful natural resources (mineral resources, cotton, hydroelectricity)</li><li>Hydroelectric, agricultural and tourism potential</li><li>Youthful population (50% is under 25 years old)</li><li>Financial support from multilateral and bilateral donors, including China</li><li>Member of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)</li></ul></article><article class="prosAndCons__cons"><h3 class="prosAndCons__cons__title style-h4">Weaknesses</h3><ul><li>High dependence on Russia (transfers from expatriate workers and military bases), and China (infrastructure and debt)</li><li>High dependence on commodities, under-diversified economy</li><li>Weak and concentrated banking system; credit is dollarised</li><li>Challenging geography and high vulnerability to natural disasters</li><li>High poverty</li><li>Limited role of the private sector, weak FDI (1.3% of GDP)</li><li>Proximity of Afghanistan and conflict with Kyrgyzstan</li><li>Poor governance</li></ul></article></div></section><section class="exportImportGraph" id="export-import-graph497"><h2 class="exportImportGraph__title style-h3">Trade exchanges</h2><div class="exportImportGraph__cont"><article class="exportImportGraph__export"><h3 class="exportImportGraph__export__title style-h4">Export<span>of goods as a % of total</span></h3><dl><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/ch.png" alt=""/>Switzerland</span><progress max="100" value="32" aria-hidden="true"> 32% </progress></dt><dd>32%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/kz.png" alt=""/>Kazakhstan</span><progress max="100" value="18" aria-hidden="true"> 18% </progress></dt><dd>18%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/uz.png" alt=""/>Uzbekistan</span><progress max="100" value="13" aria-hidden="true"> 13% </progress></dt><dd>13%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/tr.png" alt=""/>Turkey</span><progress max="100" value="12" aria-hidden="true"> 12% </progress></dt><dd>12%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/eu.png" alt=""/>Europe</span><progress max="100" value="6" aria-hidden="true"> 6% </progress></dt><dd>6%</dd></dl></article><article class="exportImportGraph__import"><h3 class="exportImportGraph__import__title style-h4">Import<span>of goods as a % of total</span></h3><dl><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/ru.png" alt=""/>Russia (Russian Federation)</span><progress max="100" value="31"> 31 </progress></dt><dd>31%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/kz.png" alt=""/>Kazakhstan</span><progress max="100" value="22"> 22 </progress></dt><dd>22%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/cn.png" alt=""/>China</span><progress max="100" value="16"> 16 </progress></dt><dd>16%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/eu.png" alt=""/>Europe</span><progress max="100" value="5"> 5 </progress></dt><dd>5%</dd><dt><span><img class="card__top__icon" src="/build/default/images/flags/uz.png" alt=""/>Uzbekistan</span><progress max="100" value="5"> 5 </progress></dt><dd>5%</dd></dl></article></div></section><section class="intro " id="risk-assessment-497"><h2 class="intro__title style-h3">Outlook</h2><p class="intro__desc">This section is a valuable tool for corporate financial officers and credit managers. It provides information on the payment and debt collection practices in use in the country.</p></section><div class="article__container " id="id_sector_risk_assessment-497"><div class="article"><div class="article__start"><div class="article__start__components"><section class="article_left_bloc-container"><div class="&#10; article_left_bloc "><div class="navbar-ui__container article_left_bloc__navbar " id="navbar-1720792122"><nav id="navbar-1720792122-nav" class="navbar-ui article_left_bloc__navbar" role="navigation" aria-label="Sector economic insights"><ul class="navbar-ui__list"><li class="navbar-ui__list__item"><a href="#economic-growth-slows-as-remittances-from-expatriate-workers-in-russia-decline" class="navbar-ui__list__item__button" data-type="anchor" data-target="economic-growth-slows-as-remittances-from-expatriate-workers-in-russia-decline" data-state="enabled" aria-disabled="false"> Economic growth slows as remittances from expatriate workers in Russia decline Expansionary fiscal policy and falling remittances: deterioration in the public and external accounts A more repressive regime and neighbouring Afghanistan </a></li></ul></nav></div></div></section></div></div><div class="article__end"><div class="wysiwyg-container"><article class="wysiwyg"><h3 id="economic-growth-slows-as-remittances-from-expatriate-workers-in-russia-decline">Economic growth slows as remittances from expatriate workers in Russia decline</h3><p>Against all expectations, Tajikistan's economic activity remained solid in 2022. Close ties with Russia ultimately benefited growth, with the number of Tajik workers in Russia rising by 51.8% over the year in response to increased Russian defence orders and the mobilisation of domestic workers. Combined with the appreciation of the rouble, the resulting rise in remittances, as well as the arrival of Russian refugees and their capital, have largely fuelled household consumption (+14.5% year-on-year in 2022). However, economic growth is set to slow in 2023 and 2024 as its main growth driver, i.e., workers' remittances (37% of GDP, the majority of which comes from Russia) runs out of steam. Flagging demand for foreign workers in Russia amid the stalemate in the war in Ukraine will have a negative impact on household consumption for which remittances are often the main source of income. Similarly, net imports will make a negative contribution to growth. The country, a net importer of oil, will suffer from durably high global oil prices and the fall in the prices of its narrow export base (mainly gold and aluminium). These headwinds aside, economic growth will be driven by public investment, with the government relying on a handful of flagship infrastructure projects to generate growth and create jobs. Among them, the Rogoun hydroelectric project, which began in 2016 and is due for completion in 2029, aims to build the world's highest dam, capable of producing as much electricity as three nuclear reactors.</p><p>In addition, monetary easing should encourage growth in private sector investment, which is still in its infancy (15% of total investment, 30% of industrial production and around 13% of formal employment). The National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) recently eased its monetary policy in order to accelerate growth and investment by reducing its main key rate by 100 bp to 10% in May 2023. After a cumulative rise of 275 bp between January 2021 and August 2022, the reduction in interest rates was made possible by falling inflation against a backdrop of the release of the country's strategic food reserves and weaker commodity prices, with the 2.6% appreciation of the somoni against the dollar helping to curb external price pressure.</p><h3 id="expansionary-fiscal-policy-and-falling-remittances-deterioration-in-the-public-and-external-accounts">Expansionary fiscal policy and falling remittances: deterioration in the public and external accounts</h3><p>After three consecutive years of surpluses, the current account is expected to move into deficit in 2023, before widening in 2024. The large deficits in the trade balance (-27.1% of GDP in 2022) and the services balance (-4.3% of GDP in 2022) will widen under the combined effects of falling gold exports, as well as buoyant imports of consumer goods, inputs and services for infrastructure projects. While these deficits are usually offset by net inflows to the income accounts, the surplus on secondary income (12.4% of GDP in 2022) will suffer from less remittances from expatriate workers in Russia and Kazakhstan. The current account deficit, particularly relating to infrastructure projects, will be financed by external borrowing on concessional terms ($453 million in 2022). In this context, and in view of the growing level of foreign exchange reserves (8 months of imports), the external debt (49% of GDP, 60% of which is public), mainly owed to China, remains sustainable, especially as it is on a downward trajectory, thanks to the rise in GDP and the appreciation of the somoni.</p><p>Despite the authorities' resolve to remain close to a balanced budget, the public deficit will continue to widen in 2023, before stabilising in 2024. This negative trend in public finances is the result of the government maintaining its policy of social spending in most areas (energy and agriculture, in particular), as well as heavy investment in the construction of the Rogoun hydroelectric power station. Despite the tax breaks provided for in the new tax code introduced in January 2022, revenues will be maintained but will not compensate for the government's expansionary policy. The public deficit will continue to be financed largely by external resources, in particular by the extension of loans from China and the arrival of new funding from multilateral lenders. Public debt (34.8% of GDP, 90% of which is denominated in foreign currencies) will continue to fall.</p><h3 id="a-more-repressive-regime-and-neighbouring-afghanistan">A more repressive regime and neighbouring Afghanistan</h3><p>The President of Tajikistan, Emomali Rahmon, wields political repression and is gradually ensuring that his family is entrenched in power. His son, Rustam Emomali, was elected President of the Upper House of Parliament in April 2020, putting him in prime position to succeed his father, who has ruled the country since the early 1990s. While popular discontent linked to widespread poverty, unemployment and a lack of freedom continues to grow, the risk of a popular uprising remains limited given the government's severe repression, so that Emomali Rahmon and those close to him are likely to remain in power until the next Parliamentary and Presidential elections in 2025 and 2027, respectively. However, one of the main domestic risks concerns the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) in eastern Tajikistan, where fresh demonstrations took place in May 2022, which were violently repressed. Unrest was provoked by the population's growing dissatisfaction with local representatives of central government.</p><p>Externally, Tajikistan has so far maintained a neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, no doubt because of its security and human ties. Afghanistan, with its one-quarter Tajik population, porous 1,357km border and Tajik government disapproval of the Taliban regime, poses a risk. While the Russian military presence seems to have diminished since the war in Ukraine, Tajikistan has strengthened its ties with China, which has become the most important bilateral partner in terms of investment and capital.</p></article></div></div></div></div><div class="article__container " id="id_debt_collection_and_insolvency-497"><div class="article"><div class="article__start"/><div class="article__end"><div class="wysiwyg-container"><article class="wysiwyg"><p class="lastUpdated">Last updated: September 2023</p></article></div></div></div></div><section class="sector-risk " data-index="false"><div class="sector-risk__container"><svg class="sector-risk__shape" aria-hidden="true" focusable="false" viewbox="0 0 232 72" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" style=""><path d="M105.347 71.363C189.662 71.3631 231.399 26.3048 231.399 -33.7612C231.399 -91.3318 193.832 -139.726 110.358 -139.726C98.2503 -139.726 86.9837 -138.474 76.5407 -136.39L64.4417 -110.936C62.7684 -107.189 65.6946 -105.937 67.7797 -106.348C79.8873 -109.693 90.7334 -113.029 111.19 -113.029C152.095 -113.029 183.407 -87.1639 183.407 -33.7612C183.407 15.4649 153.348 45.0864 106.179 45.0863C63.6094 45.0863 38.5618 21.7166 28.5393 -7.47582C27.707 -10.4003 23.9486 -9.98003 22.7045 -7.47582L0.57431 37.1534C22.284 55.0944 58.5982 71.363 105.347 71.363Z" fill="#65DCB2"/></svg><div class="sector-risk__main"/><div class="sector-risk__swipers " style="background-image: url('/build/default/images/sector_risk/background_risk_min.jpg')"><div class="sector-risk__swipers__header"><h3>Other country with similar country risk</h3></div><div class="sector-risk__swipers__country visible"><ul class="swiper-wrapper"><li class="swiper-slide"><article class="card card-rating "><h3 class="card-rating__title p-S"><a aria-labelledby="Congo-Democratic-Republic-of114907687 Congo-Democratic-Republic-of1688530666" href="/news-economy-and-insights/business-risk-dashboard/country-risk-files/congo-democratic-republic-of" 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